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Abstract During freezing rain, secondary ice produced by the fragmentation of freezing drops (FFD) can initiate a chain reaction, potentially transitioning freezing rain into ice pellets. Including this process in numerical weather prediction models is challenging due to the uncertainty of this mechanism. To bridge this gap, this study aims to evaluate the efficiency of the FFD process during ice pellet precipitation using measurements collected onboard the National Research Council Canada (NRC) Convair-580 research aircraft during the 2022 Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX). Below the supercooled raindrops freezing altitude, in situ probes measured a bimodal particle size distribution. Observations from imaging and optical-array probes show that most particles smaller than 500μm in diameter were nonspherical ice crystals, in the concentration of ∼500 L⁻¹. In contrast, most particles larger than 500μm were identified as fractured ice pellets and ice pellets with bulges, which suggested the occurrence of the FFD process. A conceptual model is then developed to show that five–eight fragments of ice were produced for each freezing drop. Two existing parameterizations of the FFD process are also tested. It is shown that one parameterization would result in less ice crystals than the measured number concentration, while the second one would result in too many ice crystals. Adjustments to these parameterizations are computed based on the collected observations. This analysis will be valuable for including the FFD process into simulations of freezing rain, ice pellets, and other weather phenomena where this process plays a significant role. Significance StatementThis study presents unique measurements from a winter storm recorded by state-of-the-art instruments onboard a research aircraft at the altitude where ice pellets are formed. The collected data suggest that the freezing of a few initial raindrops at an altitude of around 250 m above the ground resulted in the production of ice crystals. These ice crystals led to the freezing of additional raindrops in a feedback loop that can be referred to as ice multiplication. This process is quantified in the current study. The results will be valuable in improving the representation of ice pellets and freezing rain in computer simulations of winter storms. 

Landfalling lake- and sea-effect (hereafter lake-effect) systems often interact with orography, altering the distribution and intensity of precipitation, which frequently falls as snow. In this study, we examine the influence of orography on two modes of lake-effect systems: long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) bands and broad-coverage, open-cell convection. Specifically, we generate idealized large-eddy simulations of a LLAP band produced by an oval lake and broad-coverage, open-cell convection produced by an open lake (i.e., without flanking shorelines) with a downstream coastal plain, 500-m peak, and 2000-m ridge. Without terrain, the LLAP band intersects a coastal baroclinic zone over which ascent and hydrometeor mass growth are maximized, with transport and fallout producing an inland precipitation maximum. The 500-m peak does not significantly alter this structure, but slightly enhances precipitation due to orographic ascent, increased hydrometeor mass growth, and reduced subcloud sublimation. In contrast, a 2000-m ridge disrupts the band by blocking the continental flow that flanks the coastlines. This, combined with differential surface heating between the lake and land, leads to low-level flow reversal, shifting the coastal baroclinic zone and precipitation maximum offshore. In contrast, the flow moves over the terrain in open lake, open-cell simulations. Over the 500-m peak, this yields an increase in the frequency of weaker (<1 m s−1) updrafts and weak precipitation enhancement, although stronger updrafts decline. Over the 2000-m ridge, however, buoyancy and convective vigor increase dramatically, contributing to an eightfold increase in precipitation. Overall, these results highlight differences in the influence of orography on two common lake-effect modes. 

Abstract Many mountain regions around the world are exposed to enhanced warming when compared to their surroundings, threatening key environmental services provided by mountains. Here we investigate this effect, known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), in the Andes of Ecuador, using observations and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. EDW is discernible in observations of mean and maximum temperature in the Andes of Ecuador, but large uncertainties remain due to considerable data gaps in both space and time. WRF simulations of present-day (1986–2005) and future climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041–60) reveal a very distinct EDW signal, with different rates of warming on the eastern and western slopes. This EDW effect is the combined result of multiple feedback mechanisms that operate on different spatial scales. Enhanced upper-tropospheric warming projects onto surface temperature on both sides of the Andes. In addition, changes in the zonal mean midtropospheric circulation lead to enhanced subsidence and warming over the western slopes at high elevation. The increased subsidence also induces drying, reduces cloudiness, and results in enhanced net surface radiation receipts, further contributing to stronger warming. Finally, the highest elevations are also affected by the snow-albedo feedback, due to significant reductions in snow cover by the middle of the twenty-first century. While these feedbacks are more pronounced in the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, our results indicate that high elevations in Ecuador will continue to warm at enhanced rates in the twenty-first century, regardless of emission scenario. Significance StatementMountains are often projected to experience stronger warming than their surrounding lowlands going forward, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), which can threaten high-altitude ecosystems and lead to accelerated glacier retreat. We investigate the mechanisms associated with EDW in the Andes of Ecuador using both observations and model simulations for the present and the future. A combination of factors amplify warming at mountain tops, including a stronger warming high in the atmosphere, reduced cloudiness, and a reduction of snow and ice at high elevations. The latter two factors also favor enhanced absorption of sunlight, which promotes warming. The degree to which this warming is enhanced at high elevations in the future depends on the greenhouse gas emission pathway.